Capacidades dinámicas bajo incertidumbre política: Análisis de la aplicación del Enfoque de Planificación de Escenarios de Oxford (OSPA) en el sector minero de una economía emergente
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21678/jb.2026.2812Palabras clave:
América Latina, Planificación de escenarios, Prospectiva, CapacidadesResumen
Las economías emergentes comparten un aspecto clave: su inherente incertidumbre política. Por ello, resulta fundamental comprender cómo las empresas que operan en este tipo de economías interpretan su entorno presente, si desean anticipar desarrollos futuros. El enfoque de planificación de escenarios puede utilizarse para desarrollar capacidades dinámicas que permitan enfrentar la incertidumbre política. El propósito de este estudio es validar el Enfoque de Planificación de Escenarios de Oxford (OSPA) desde la perspectiva de una economía emergente. Para ello, se realizaron entrevistas en profundidad con miembros de asociaciones clave de liderazgo empresarial (locales y extranjeras), con el fin de identificar percepciones subyacentes que aporten información sobre posibles escenarios futuros. A partir de diez entrevistas en profundidad con líderes de opinión y altos ejecutivos del sector minero en el Perú, el estudio muestra que la planificación corporativa en esta economía emergente sigue estando dominada por rutinas cuantitativas de corto plazo, centradas en la proyección (“forecast-centered”), que dejan a las empresas en una posición reactiva frente a los shocks y vulnerables a una trampa de alta incertidumbre. Los participantes reconocen que el OSPA podría ayudarles a identificar y ensayar amenazas intangibles —especialmente el riesgo político y el conflicto social—, al mismo tiempo que fomenta tres capacidades dinámicas: un análisis de riesgos multidimensional más profundo, una mayor rapidez de adaptación y una exploración más aguda del entorno.
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Derechos de autor 2026 Neil Pyper Birmingham University , William Castillo , Maria Estrella Peinado Bravo, Juan Carlos Ladines
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