El rol de las noticias digitales en la formación de expectativas de inflación: evidencia desde una economía emergente (Colombia, 2009-2018)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21678/apuntes.100.2255Palabras clave:
desacuerdos, inflación, expectativas de inflación, consumidores, comunicación, medios masivosResumen
El objetivo de este trabajo es investigar los efectos de los medios masivos de comunicación digitales en la formación de expectativas de inflación. En particular, este trabajo evalúa el impacto de las noticias digitales sobre inflación en los desacuerdos en las expectativas de inflación de los consumidores. Para ello, se utiliza como estudio de caso la economía colombiana para el período 2009-2018. La metodología empleada consiste en evaluar la influencia de las noticias sobre inflación suministrada por cinco periódicos digitales representativos sobre los desacuerdos. Por medio de regresiones econométricas y utilizando el método GMM, se encuentra que el mayor volumen de noticias sobre inflación, así como las noticias sobre incrementos y con tono negativo sobre la inflación tienen la capacidad de reducir las discrepancias entre los agentes.
Descargas
Citas
Altheide, D. L. (1997). The news media, the problem frame, and the production of fear. Sociological Quarterly, 38(4), 647-668. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.1997.tb00758.x
Anzoátegui, J. C., & Galvis, J. C. (2020). Disagreements in consumer inflation expectations: Empirical evidence for a Latin American economy. Journal of Business Cycle Research, 16, 99-122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-020-00047-x
Anzoátegui, J. C., & Galvis, J. C. (2022). Efectos de la comunicación del banco central sobre el desacuerdo en las expectativas de la tasa de política monetaria: evidencias para Colombia. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 14(2), 375-409. https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v14.n2.2022.4
Binder, C. (2017). Consumer forecast revisions: Is information really so sticky? Economics Letters, 161, 112-115. https ://doi.org/10.1016/j.econl et.2017.09.029
Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., De Haan, J., & Jansen, D. (2022). Central bank communication with the general public: Promise or false hope? Working Paper Series. European Central Bank 2694. https://doi.org/10.3386/w30277
Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., De Haan, J., & Jansen, D. (2008). Central bank communication and monetary policy: A survey of theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 46, 910-945. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.46.4.910
Campos, R. M., Esquivel, G., & Medina, A. (2022). Expectativas de inflación de consumidores mexicanos: un análisis sobre su magnitud y sus determinantes, y una intervención experimental para afectarlas. El Trimestre Económico, 89(355), 719-753. https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v89i355.1331
Candia, B., Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2020). Communication and the beliefs of economic agents. En Navigating the decade ahead: Implications for monetary policy, Economic Policy Symposium (Jackson Hole, WY) Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27800
Carroll, C. (2003). Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 269-298. https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530360535207
Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Information rigidity and the expectations formation process: A simple framework and new facts. American Economic Review, 105(8), 2644-2678. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20110306
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2022). Monetary policy communications and their effects on household inflation expectations. Journal of Political Economy, 130(6), 1537-1584. https://doi.org/10.1086/718982
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., & Pedemonte, M. (2020). Inflation expectations as a policy tool? Journal of International Economics, 124, 103297. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jinteco.2020.103297
D’Acunto, F., Malmendier, U., & Weber, M. (2019). Exposure to daily price changes and inflation expectations. National Bureau of Economic Research 26237. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26237
D’Acunto, F., Malmendier, U., Ospina, J., & Weber, M. (2021). Exposure to grocery prices and inflation expectations. Journal of Political Economy, 129(5). https://doi.org/10.1086/713192
Dräger, L., & Lamla, M. (2017). Explaining disagreement on interest rates in a Taylor-rule setting. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 119(4), 987-1009. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12217
Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
Ehrmann, M., & Talmi, J. (2020). Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility. Journal of Monetary Economics, 111, 48-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.01.028
Ehrmann, M., Georgarakos, D., & Kenny, G. (2022). Credibility gains from communicating with the public: Evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy. Documento inédito. European Central Bank. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10710
Ehrmann, M., Pfajfar, D., & Santoro, S. (2015). Consumers’ attitudes and their inflation expectations. Finance and Economics Discussion Series 15. https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2015.015
Fiske, S. T. (1980). Attention and weight in person perception: The impact of negative and extreme behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 38, 889-906. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.38.6.889
Gardt, M., Bitterlich, M., & Glöckler, G. (2021). From information to collaboration: quantifying central banks’ engagement with the public. ECB, documento inédito.
Gibbs, J., & Poston, D. (1975). The division of labor: Conceptualization and related measures. Social Forces, 53(3), 468-476. https://doi.org/10.2307/2576589
Hamilton, J. (1996). This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship. Journal of Monetary Economic, 38, 215-220. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01282-2
Hansen, L. P. (1982). Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators. Econometrica, 50(4), 1029-1054. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912775
Holsti, O. R. (1969). Content analysis for the social sciences and humanities. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Hossain, A. A. (2014). Inflation and inflation volatility in Australia. Economic Papers, 33(2), 163-185. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1130215
International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023). Colombia: 2023 Article IV Consultation. Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia. IMF Country Report 23/120.
Judson, R., & Orphanides, A. (1999). Inflation, volatility and growth. International Finance, 2(1), 117-138. https://doi:10.1111/1468-2362.00021
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.
Lamla, M., & Lein, S. (2014). The role of media for consumers’ inflation expectation formation. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 106, 62-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2014.05.004
Lamla, M., & Lein, S. (2015). Information rigidities, inflation perceptions, and the media: Lessons from the euro cash changeover. Economic Inquiry, 53(1), 9-22. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12121
Lamla, M., & Maag, T. (2012). The role of media for inflation forecast disagreement of households and professional forecasters. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(7), 1325-1350. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x
Lamla, M., & Vinogradov, D. (2019). Central bank announcements: Big news for little people? Journal of Monetary Economics, 108, 21-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.08.014
Lei, C., Lu, Z., & Zhang, C. (2015). News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations in China. Economic Systems, 39(4), 644-653. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.04.006
Łyziak, T., & Sheng, X. S. (2023). Disagreement in consumer inflation expectations. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 55(8), 2215-2241. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12981
Maag, T. (2009). On the accuracy of the probability method for quantifying beliefs about inflation. KOF Working papers 230. KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1434795
Maćkowiak, B., & Wiederholt, M. (2025). Rational inattention and the business cycle effects of productivity and news shocks. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 17(1), 274-309. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220182
Mankiw, G., & Reis, R. (2002). Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1295-1328. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935034
Osorio-Barreto, D., Mora, J., & Sierra-Suárez, L. P. (2025). Determinants of inflation expectations in Colombia: a VAR-X analysis. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-01-2024-0017
Ramos-Veloza, M. A., Ríos, D. M. O., & Martínez, J. A. M. (2024). Tweeting Inflation: Real-time measures of inflation perception in Colombia. Latin American Economic Review, 33, 1-39.
Reid, M., Siklos, P., & Du Plessis, S. (2021). What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting. Economic Systems, 45(3), 100878. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2021.100878
Reis, R. (2006). Inattentive producers. Review of Economic Studies, 73, 793-821. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2006.00396.x
Reis, R. (2009). A sticky-information general equilibrium model for policy analysis. En K. Schmidt-Hebbel, C. Walsh & N. Loayza (Eds.), Monetary policy under uncertainty and learning (vol. 13, cap. 8, pp. 227-283). https://doi.org/10.3386/w14732
Sims, C. (2003). Implications of rational inattention. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50, 665-690. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00029-1
Soroka, S., & McAdams, S. (2015). News, politics, and negativity. Politica Communication, 32(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2014.881942
Teixeira, F. O., Oliveira, I. C. L. D., & Ferreira, P. C. (2017). Consumer’s inflation expectations in Brazil. Estudos Econômicos, 47, 509-529. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41614733fip
Ter Ellen, S., Larsen, V. H., & Thorsrud, L. A. (2022). Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 54(5), 1525-1549. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12868
Wang, B. Z., Sheen, J., Trück, S., Chao, S. K., & Härdle, W. K. (2020). A note on the impact of news on US household inflation expectations. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 24(4), 995-1015. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100518000482
Woodford, M. (2001). Monetary policy in the information economy. En Economic policy for the information economy (pp. 297-370). Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. https://doi.org/10.3386/w8674
Wooldridge, J. M. (2001). Applications of generalized method of moments estimation. Journal of Economics Perspectives, 15(4), 87-100. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.15.4.87
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2026 Juan Camilo Anzoategui

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
Apuntes, revista de Ciencia Sociales publica todos sus artículos y reseñas bajo la licencia Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) con el objetivo de fomentar el intercambio académico a nivel mundial. Por ello, la obra en cuestión puede ser distribuida, remezclada, retocada, etc., como el autor y los lectores de la misma lo estimen conveniente. La única condición es que se cite a la revista Apuntes, revista de Ciencias Sociales como entidad editora del texto.

.jpg)