Los costos y beneficios de innovar: evidencia causal de los programas y servicios públicos de innovación en el desempeño de las empresas manufactureras peruanas
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21678/jb.2026.2858Palabras clave:
evaluación de impacto, desempeño empresarial, ventas, IPWRA, programas públicos, Perú, servicios de innovación, manufacturaResumen
El estudio evalúa el impacto de los programas públicos de apoyo a la innovación y los servicios tecnológicos en el desempeño empresarial de firmas peruanas, utilizando microdatos de la Encuesta Nacional de Innovación en la Industria Manufacturera y Empresas de Servicios Intensivas en Conocimiento (ENIIMESIC) 2018 y el estimador Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment (IPWRA). Este enfoque doblemente robusto permite identificar efectos causales del tratamiento bajo el supuesto de independencia condicional. Los resultados muestran un panorama heterogéneo: los programas impulsaron significativamente la innovación y las exportaciones, pero no se asociaron a mejoras inmediatas en las ventas internas. En promedio, las empresas beneficiarias exhiben una probabilidad 19 p.p. mayor de introducir innovaciones de producto o proceso, y un incremento superior al 100 % en exportaciones respecto a las no tratadas. Sin embargo, se observa una reducción promedio del 31 % en ventas y una menor concentración de ingresos en el producto principal, lo que sugiere procesos de diversificación productiva acompañados de ajustes transitorios. Al diferenciar por tipo de intervención, los subsidios a la innovación presentan efectos más marcados en innovación de producto y exportaciones, mientras los servicios tecnológicos destacan por su influencia en innovación de proceso y diversificación. Estos resultados reflejan un posible trade-off temporal entre actividades innovativas y desempeño comercial de corto plazo. Desde una perspectiva de política pública, los hallazgos subrayan la necesidad de coordinar los instrumentos de apoyo, reforzar el acompañamiento posterior y aprovechar el seguimiento de la próxima ENIIMESIC 2025 para evaluar la sostenibilidad de los efectos observados.
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