Determinantes de la evolución del número de casos y muertes por COVID-19 en el Perú: movilidad, geografía y desarrollo económico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21678/apuntes.91.1500Keywords:
COVID-19, mobility, panel data, PeruAbstract
This research seeks to contribute to the literature on the determinants of the evolution of the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Peru; specifically, the role of mobility of people —understood as displacement—, geography, and economic development. To do this, we use random-effects Poisson regressions and data from four groups of variables at the district level: (1) COVID-19, (2) mobility of people, (3) geographic variables, and (4) socioeconomic variables. The main results indicate that the mobility of people has a negative relationship with the probability of accumulating cases and deaths of COVID-19 until the ninth week of the pandemic, but it has a positive relationship from the eleventh week. We also find that socioeconomic variables such as GDP per capita and life expectancy have positive associations with the probability of accumulating COVID-19 cases and deaths, while geographic variables such as height and slope of the territory have negative associations. The results also indicate that the role of geographic and socioeconomic variables depends on the inclusion of Lima in the empirical analysis.
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Arias-Reyes, C., Zubieta-DeUrioste, N., Poma-Machicao, L., Aliaga-Raduan, F., Carva- jal-Rodriguez, F., Dutschmann, M., ... & Soliz, J. (2020). Does the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 virus decrease at high-altitude? Respiratory Physiology & Neurobiology, 277, 103443.
Aromí, D., Bonel, M. P., Cristia, J. P., Llada, M., & Palomino, L. (2021). Socioeconomic status and mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis of eight large Latin American cities (N.º 11312). Inter-American Development Bank.
Aromí, D., Bonel, M. P., Cristia, J., Llada, M., Pereira, J. I., Pulido, X., & Santamaría,
J. (2020). #QuedateEnCasa: las políticas de distanciamiento social y la movilidad en América Latina y el Caribe (N.º IDB-WP-1147). IDB Working Paper Series.
Atalan, A. (2020). Is the lockdown important to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic? Effects on psychology, environment and economy-perspective. Annals of Medicine and Sur- gery, 56, 38-42.
Casalino, C. (2017). Mortalidad por epidemias y endemia según causas y condiciones sani- tarias a mediados del siglo XIX en Lima, Perú. Revista Peruana de Medicina Experi- mental y Salud Pública, 34, 564-568.
Chauvin, J. P. (2021). Why does COVID-19 affect some cities more than others? Evidence from the first year of the pandemic in Brazil (N.º IDB-WP-1251). IDB Working Paper Series.
Cook, C., Currier, L., & Glaeser, E. (2022). Urban mobility and the experienced isolation of students and adults. NBER Working Paper 29645.
Couture, V., Dingel, J. I., Green, A., Handbury, J., & Williams, K. R. (2021). JUE Insight: Measuring movement and social contact with smartphone data: A real-time appli- cation to COVID-19. Journal of Urban Economics, 103328.
Fernandes, J. S. C., Silva, R. S., Silva, A. C., Villela, D. C., Mendonça, V. A., & Lacerda, A.
C. R. (2020). Altitude conditions seem to determine the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil: A significance relationship with cases and deaths. Research Square, 1-13.
Franco, A. P., Galiani, S., & Lavado, P. (2021). Long-term effects of the Inca Road (N.º w28979). National Bureau of Economic Research.
García, O. (2020). La selva peruana y su alta vulnerabilidad ante la covid-19. PuntoEdu PUCP. https://puntoedu.pucp.edu.pe/coronavirus/la-selva-peruana-y-su-alta-vul nerabilidad-ante-la-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR0ZXxGCoP68RJdFlFqphSBXkgJ2SI FWVOB2yttbDPtvLDNBA07I9VZSRyY
García Cáceres, U. (2002). El cólera en la historia de la medicina social peruana: comenta- rios sobre un decreto precursor. Revista Peruana de Medicina Experimental y Salud Pública, 19(2), 97-101.
Google. (2020). Descubre cómo han cambiado los desplazamientos de tu comunidad debido al COVID-19. Informes de movilidad local sobre el COVID-19. https://www.google. com/covid19/mobility/?hl=es
Henderson, J. V., Storeygard, A., & Weil, D. N. (2020). Quality-adjusted population den- sity. NBER Working Paper 28070.
Huamaní, C., Velásquez, L., Montes, S., & Miranda-Solís, F. (2020). Propagation by COVID-19 at high altitude: Cusco case. Respiratory Physiology & Neurobiology, 279, 103448.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI). (2020). Mapa de pobreza provincial y distrital 2018.
Intimayta-Escalante, C., Rojas-Bolívar, D., & Hancco, I. (2020). Letter to the editor: Influence of altitude on the prevalence and case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Peru. High Altitude Medicine & Biology.
Nguimkeu, P., & Tadadjeu, S. (2020). Why is the number of COVID-19 cases lower than expected in Sub-Saharan Africa? A cross-sectional analysis of the role of demo- graphic and geographic factors. World Development, 138, 1-8.
Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). (2020). Organización Mundial de la Salud. Recupe- rado de https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general- s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19 11-march-2020
Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNUD). (2019). El reto de la igual- dad: una lectura a las dinámicas territoriales en el Perú (datos disponibles para el período 2003-2019). https://www.pe.undp.org/content/peru/es/home/library/ poverty/el-reto-de-la-igualdad.html
Seclén, S. N., Nunez-Robles, E., Yovera-Aldana, M., & Arias-Chumpitaz, A. (2020). Inci- dence of COVID-19 infection and prevalence of diabetes, obesity and hypertension according to altitude in Peruvian population. Diabetes Research and Clinical Prac- tice, 169, 108463.
Segovia-Juárez, J., Castagnetto, J. M., & Gonzales, G. F. (2020). High altitude reduces infection rate of COVID-19 but not case-fatality rate. Respiratory Physiology & Neu- robiology, 281, 103494.
Seminario, B., & Palomino, L. (2021). Concentración de la actividad económica y de la población en el Perú, 1795-2018. En En búsqueda de un desarrollo integral, 89.
Seminario, B. & Palomino, L. (2022). Estimación del PIB a nivel subnacional utilizando datos satelitales de luminosidad: Perú, 1993-2018. Documento de Investigación. De próxima publicación. Universidad del Pacífico.
Seminario, B., Zegarra, M. A., & Palomino, L. (2019). Estimación del PIB departamental y análisis de la desigualdad regional en el Perú: 1795-2017 (N.º IDB-WP-1016). IDB Working Paper Series.
Walrand, S. (2021). Autumn COVID-19 surge dates in Europe correlated to latitudes, not to temperature-humidity, pointing to vitamin D as contributing factor. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 1-9.
Wang, Q., & Li, S. (2021). Nonlinear impact of COVID-19 on pollutions: Evidence from Wuhan, New York, Milan, Madrid, Bandra, London, Tokyo and Mexico City. Sus- tainable Cities and Society, 65, 102629.
Zubieta-Calleja G. (2020). Covid-19 Pandemia Essential Suggestions. https://altitudeclinic com/blog/2020/03/covid-19-pandemia-essential-suggestions/
Zubieta-Calleja, G. R., & Zubieta-DeUrioste, N. A. (2017). Extended longevity at high altitude: Benefits of exposure to chronic hypoxia. BLDE University Journal of Health Sciences, 2(2), 80-90.
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Published
2022-04-20
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Seminario (†), B., Palomino, L., Berrocal, V., & Gastiaburú, A. (2022). Determinantes de la evolución del número de casos y muertes por COVID-19 en el Perú: movilidad, geografía y desarrollo económico. Apuntes. Social Sciences Journal, 49(91). https://doi.org/10.21678/apuntes.91.1500
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